Editorial: No time to relax: Avoiding default is just first step

Published 5:00 pm Monday, August 1, 2011

The smack-down in Washington, D.C. over the national debt hasn’t been pretty to watch in recent weeks. A last-ditch compromise was approved by Congress just as the Eagle went to press this week; it was expected to be signed by the president.

Most Popular

When the ink dries, it might be tempting to let out a giant “phew” and relax. But in reality, the battle’s far from over. Increasing the debt ceiling prevents a default, but not other types of fallout – including the specter that rating agencies could downgrade the nation’s credit anyway.

In addition, the debt ceiling increases called for in the plan are expected to cover the nation’s borrowing until just 2013. That’s not exactly a long-term solution. A bipartisan panel will have to tackle further cuts by the end of the year. Tax or entitlement reforms remain possible, but that will take considerably more political agreement and courage than what’s been seen in recent weeks.

So far, the debate has left many Americans feeling like spectators at a tennis match. Republicans, who hold a majority in the House of Representatives, insisted that any increase in the borrowing limit be accompanied by spending cuts, with no tax increases. Democrats insisted that spending cuts be offset by tax increases.

House Republicans, joined by five Democrats, came up with the so-called Cut, Cap and Balance Act. It would have cut spending by $111 billion next year, capped future spending to 19.9 percent of gross domestic product, and advanced a constitutional amendment requiring a balanced budget. That plan was axed by Senate Democrats.

Then the bipartisan “Gang of Six” senators offered a complicated, two-stage plan that would mandate “immediate” spending cuts of $500 billion over 10 years, and set up committees to make more cuts. It called for a massive overhaul of the tax code. The wheels fell off this proposal in the face of certain opposition in the House.

Then came the proposal finally approved this week. It aims to cut spending by about $2.5 trillion over 10 years but the details aren’t expected to make anyone entirely happy.

As CNN writer Jeanne Sahadi summed up the series of events: “Well, that was ugly.”

So how do we follow this act? A few factual observations provide needed perspective for the situation:

The United States’ debt stands at about $14.2 trillion. We are collectively borrowing about 40 cents of every dollar the government spends. This year, the interest alone is more than $200 billion.

Two-thirds of that debt is held by either American investors, or is in the form of intergovernmental loans – mostly money Congress borrowed from the Social Security “trust fund.” Foreign governments hold the other third, using U.S. securities to safeguard their money. The Chinese hold about 8 percent of the total debt.

The latest budget projections estimated annual shortfalls of $1.3 trillion a year or more each of the next 10 years. Architects of the new plan will need to come up with a way to mitigate these annual budget deficits.

Clearly, avoiding default is only the first step. Despite the acrimony of the past few weeks, Congress and the president are left with a golden opportunity, really a mandate, to get the country’s massive deficit spending under control. The debate over how to do that should not wind down, but continue – especially in the coming year, as the presidential and congressional elections take center stage. Much more work is needed if we are to turn this first step into meaningful change.

Marketplace