1. Legislative districts’ population gain (2010-2020)

Eleven state lawmakers on Thursday will begin a politically Herculean task with historically small odds of success: Draw 96 new political districts in 46 days that will be used beginning with the 2022 election.

The six Democrats and five Republicans on the House and Senate redistricting committees are set to receive block-by-block U.S. Census data chock full of population and demographic changes since the last map-making 10 years ago.

The COVID-19 pandemic caused a six-month delay in the delivery of the geographically microscopic analysis. It’s a key to ensuring district designs don’t violate the 1965 U.S. Voter Rights Act or state rules to link “communities of interest” together when possible.

Top court is redistricting traffic cop

The delay caused the state to blow by several deadlines for redistricting. State leaders were unsure of who had the responsibility — and political opportunity — to control the process.

It took an Oregon Supreme Court ruling in April to untangle the mess. The justices ruled the legislature would get the first shot. But it attached a crushing deadline.

The redistricting plan had to be created, debated, approved by the House and Senate, confirmed by Gov. Kate Brown and arrive back at the court no later than Sept. 27.

Since the legislature adjourned for the year at the end of June, lawmakers will be called back for a special session on Sept. 20.

What comes out of this high-speed scramble of the current political topography is anybody’s guess.

“Nobody knows what their district’s going to look like right now,” Senate President Peter Courtney said last week. “Some are going to be dramatically changed, and some aren’t.”

The arrival of the data this week will allow the committees to start on a long to-do list:

Draw 60 House districts, each with about 70,621 residents.

Draw 30 Senate districts, each with about 141,242 residents.

Draw six congressional districts — one more than now exists — each with about 706,209 residents.

History shows getting any legislative plan implemented is a longshot.

Only once in 110 years has the legislature come up with new district maps that were approved by the governor and faced no court challenges. It was in 2011, when a rare 30-30 split of House seats between Republicans and Democrats required unavoidable compromises.

All the other times, either the legislature couldn’t agree on a plan, it was vetoed by the governor, ended up in the lap of the secretary of state or attracted a dog pile of court challenges.

Be

nd and Portland bulges preface big changes

The final 2022 district maps likely won’t be seen until well into autumn. But the initial release of state, county and city totals show undeniable patterns of where districts are likely to stretch or shrink.

Oregon received a new congressional seat by outpacing the nation in adding more people. The 2020 population is officially 4,237,256. Oregon grew by 10.7% since 2010, above the 7.4% national average.

But the growth has not been evenly spread across the state. Traditional Republican strongholds in eastern and southwestern Oregon have seen tepid population growth.

The biggest political bounce could be in the Bend area. The 2010 census put the city’s population at just over 76,700. The 2020 census reported the city was home to 106,023 people, a 38% increase.

The growth has come with political change attached. Democrats flipped the House seat representing most of the city in 2020. Deschutes County gave a majority of its presidential vote to Democrat Joe Biden over then-President Donald Trump.

Early census data shows the other big growth area over the past decade in Oregon was a suburban arc around Portland. It stretches from Wilsonville to Hillsboro, curves through and around northern Portland then drops southeast into Clackamas County. All the current representatives in those areas are Democrats.

Reveille for GOP

House Minority Leader Christine Drazan, R-Canby, recently fired a verbal flare to get Republicans’ attention focused on the new maps that will be used until the 2032 election.

Drazan noted Democrats’ dominance of all the key roles in redistricting from supermajorities in the Legislature to a sweep of state executive offices.

Though officially nonpartisan, all seven justices on the Oregon Supreme Court were elevated by Democrats (there hasn’t been a Republican governor since Vic Atiyeh left office in 1987).

Drazan said partisanship could play as big a role as population shifts unless Democrats have someone looking over their shoulders.

“We are at high risk of gerrymandering,” Drazan said. “They have the power, but we’ll be able to question how it is done.”

Drazan will have outsized sway over redistricting due to a deal she struck during the 2021 session with House Speaker Tina Kotek, D-Portland.

Drazan agreed to stop using parliamentary moves to slow the Democrats’ agenda.

Kotek in exchange appointed Drazan to the House Redistricting Committee. The move means the committee has political parity, with three Democrats and three Republicans.

No similar plan was worked out with the Senate. Its redistricting committee has three Democrats and two Republicans.

How the two politically asymmetrical panels will be integrated when it comes time to debate and vote on new district maps is a process still being hammered out.

If the House and Senate can’t come up with a plan, or Brown vetoes their proposal, there is a backup plan.

Secretary of State Shemia Fagan would draw legislative districts, while congressional maps would be the task of a five-judge panel created by the Oregon Supreme Court. They would have to submit their work to the court by Oct. 18.

If the maps drawn by Fagan or the judges’ panel are found wanting under legal review, the Supreme Court justices would draw the lines themselves.

The court has set Feb. 7, 2022, as the latest date for maps to be finalized, including any legal challenges.

With redistricting settled, potential major party candidates would have one month until the March 8 deadline to file for the May 17 primary election.

Dick Hughes of Oregon Capital Insider contributed to this story.