Stock Market Today: Stocks higher as markets bet on first quarter Fed rate cuts
Published 2:29 am Wednesday, November 29, 2023
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U.S. equity futures moved higher Wednesday, while Treasury yields and the dollar tested multi-month lows, as investors begin to accelerate bets on a Federal Reserve rate cut into early next year.
Fed Governor Christopher Waller, speaking at the American Enterprise institute yesterday in Washington, indicated that the Fed could both deliver a ‘soft landing’ for the world’s biggest economy and begin cutting rates as early as the first quarter of next year if inflation continues to moderate at its current pace “for three months, four months, five months.”
“It has nothing to do with trying to save the economy. It is consistent with every policy rule. There is no reason to say we will keep it really high,” Waller said.
The change in tone from Waller, previously considered one of the more hawkish members of the Fed’s rate-setting committee, triggered a sharp rally in Treasury bonds that pulled benchmark 10-year note yields below 4.3% for the first since since mid-September.
The CME Group’s FedWatch is also pricing in a 40.6% chance the Fed will lower its benchmark lending rate by 25 basis points in March, with the odds of a cut in May pegged at 50.1%. A June cut is fully price-in, according to FedWatch data.
Bill Ackman, the billionaire investor who runs Pershing Square Capital, told Bloomberg he expects the Fed to move in the first quarter.
“I think there’s a real risk of a hard landing if the Fed doesn’t start cutting rates pretty soon,” he said.
The Commerce Department will publish its latest estimate on third quarter GDP growth at 8:30 am eastern time, with analysts looking for a modest boost to the current 4.9% assessment.
The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow forecasting tool, meanwhile, pegs current quarter growth at 2.1%, up modestly from the 2% advance it calculated earlier this month.
The Fed will also publish its ‘Beige Book’ of economic activity around the region over the month of November at 2:00 pm eastern time.
The Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, the core PCE price index, will be published at 8:30 am eastern time Thursday, followed by a Friday speech from Fed Chair Jerome Powell at at Spelman College in Atlanta.
With Treasury yields and the dollar moving lower, stocks are set for a solid set of opening bell gains Wednesday as futures contracts tied to the S&P 500 are indicating an 14 point advance.
Contracts tied to the Dow Jones Industrial Average, meanwhile, suggest a 100 point gain while those linked to the Nasdaq are priced for 75 point advance.
In overseas markets, Europe’s Stoxx 600 was marked 0.48% higher in early Frankfurt trading, while the FTSE 100 slipped 0.1% as the pound climbed to 1.2681 against the weakened greenback.
Overnight in Asia, the region-wide MCSI ex-Japan index slipped 0.26% into the close of trading, while the Nikkei 225 fell 0.26% in Tokyo.
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